Africa's Macro-Economic Outlook

Executive Summary

Africa remains one of the world's most compelling long-term growth frontiers, underpinned by a young population, rapid urbanisation, and accelerating digital adoption. However, short- to medium-term performance is increasingly asymmetric. Growth is concentrating in a subset of reform-oriented, resource-advantaged, and digitally leapfrogging economies, while others face mounting fiscal pressure, currency volatility, and climate-related shocks.

The opportunity is no longer continental by default. Returns accrue to those who understand where growth is durable, where risk is mispriced, and where structural tailwinds outweigh macro instability.

In this report

• Executive summary
• Continental growth outlook and macro trends
• Regional divergence and market fragmentation
• Inflation, currency, and fiscal risk landscape
• Demographics, productivity, and labour dynamics
• Investment flows, capital constraints, and opportunity zones
• Policy direction and reform momentum
• Strategic implications for investors, operators, and policymakers

Key Themes

Growth divergence: Why East and parts of West Africa are outpacing peers, while debt-stressed economies lag

Risk re-pricing: Inflation, FX exposure, and sovereign debt dynamics reshaping capital flows

Demographic leverage: Turning population growth into productivity gains — or instability

Fragmentation as strategy: Why market-by-market intelligence now matters more than continental narratives

Opportunity zones: Sectors and regions where macro conditions align with scalable demand